2026 NCAA March Madness — Final Bracket
Champion: Houston (2-seed)
Strategy: Distribution-first, contrarian champion, research-backed upsets
Built: March 17, 2026 | Brackets lock Thursday 3/19 @ 12:15p ET
Round
Key Picks
Champion Houston (2)
Championship Houston over Arizona
Final Four Duke (1), Houston (2), Arizona (1), Iowa State (2) — seed sum 6
Elite 8 Duke, Mich. St., Arizona, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Houston, Michigan, Iowa State — seed sum 17
R1 Upsets 10 total (3× 11-over-6, 2× 12-over-5, 2× 10-over-7, 3× 9-over-8)
First Four (Dayton, March 17-18)
Game
Pick
Why
(16) UMBC vs (16) Howard
Howard —
(11) Texas vs (11) NC State
Texas Talent edge; need them for BYU upset
(16) Prairie View A&M vs (16) Lehigh
Lehigh —
(11) Miami (OH) vs (11) SMU
SMU B.J. Edwards gives edge if healthy
Game
Pick
Seed
Upset?
(1) Duke vs (16) Siena
Duke 1
(8) Ohio State vs (9) TCU
Ohio State 8
(5) St. John's vs (12) Northern Iowa
St. John's 5
(4) Kansas vs (13) Cal Baptist
Kansas 4
(6) Louisville vs (11) South Florida
South Florida 11
✓ Louisville missing Mikel Brown Jr. (back); USF 19-3 since Dec
(3) Michigan State vs (14) North Dakota State
Michigan State 3
(7) UCLA vs (10) UCF
UCLA 7
(2) UConn vs (15) Furman
UConn 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Duke vs Ohio State
Duke 1
St. John's vs Kansas
St. John's 5
Michigan State vs South Florida
Michigan State 3
UCLA vs UConn
UConn 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Duke vs St. John's
Duke 1
Michigan State vs UConn
Michigan State 3
Game
Pick
Seed
Duke vs Michigan State
Duke 1
Game
Pick
Seed
Upset?
(1) Arizona vs (16) LIU
Arizona 1
(8) Villanova vs (9) Utah State
Utah State 9
✓ USU won MWC tourney; Villanova lost Hodge (ACL); sharp money on USU
(5) Wisconsin vs (12) High Point
High Point 12
✓ Only 12-seed with 20%+ BPI upset prob; 30-4, 14-game streak, 90 PPG
(4) Arkansas vs (13) Hawai'i
Arkansas 4
(6) BYU vs (11) Texas
Texas 11
✓ BYU lost Richie Saunders (ACL); under .500 since; 37% upset prob
(3) Gonzaga vs (14) Kennesaw State
Gonzaga 3
(7) Miami (FL) vs (10) Missouri
Missouri 10
✓ Standard 7-10 coin flip (~40%); Miami inconsistent
(2) Purdue vs (15) Queens
Purdue 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Arizona vs Utah State
Arizona 1
Arkansas vs High Point
Arkansas 4
Texas vs Gonzaga
Texas 11
Missouri vs Purdue
Purdue 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Arizona vs Arkansas
Arizona 1
Texas vs Purdue
Purdue 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Arizona vs Purdue
Arizona 1
Game
Pick
Seed
Upset?
(1) Florida vs (16) Lehigh
Florida 1
(8) Clemson vs (9) Iowa
Iowa 9
✓ SportsLine model pick; Clemson lost Carter Welling (ACL) in ACC tourney
(5) Vanderbilt vs (12) McNeese
Vanderbilt 5
(4) Nebraska vs (13) Troy
Nebraska 4
(6) North Carolina vs (11) VCU
VCU 11
✓ 39% BPI upset prob; UNC missing Caleb Wilson (surgery); VCU won 16 of 17
(3) Illinois vs (14) Penn
Illinois 3
(7) Saint Mary's vs (10) Texas A&M
Saint Mary's 7
(2) Houston vs (15) Idaho
Houston 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Florida vs Iowa
Florida 1
Vanderbilt vs Nebraska
Vanderbilt 5
VCU vs Illinois
Illinois 3
Saint Mary's vs Houston
Houston 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Florida vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 5
Illinois vs Houston
Houston 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Vanderbilt vs Houston
Houston 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Upset?
(1) Michigan vs (16) Howard
Michigan 1
(8) Georgia vs (9) Saint Louis
Saint Louis 9
✓ SLU shoots 40.1% from 3 on 27.2 attempts/game; 28-5 record
(5) Texas Tech vs (12) Akron
Akron 12
✓ Tech lost JT Toppin (ACL), 3 straight losses; Akron 29-5, 10-game streak
(4) Alabama vs (13) Hofstra
Alabama 4
(6) Tennessee vs (11) SMU
Tennessee 6
(3) Virginia vs (14) Wright State
Virginia 3
(7) Kentucky vs (10) Santa Clara
Santa Clara 10
✓ Santa Clara analytically better (avg rank 31.7); Kentucky too inconsistent
(2) Iowa State vs (15) Tennessee State
Iowa State 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Michigan vs Saint Louis
Michigan 1
Akron vs Alabama
Akron 12
Tennessee vs Virginia
Virginia 3
Santa Clara vs Iowa State
Iowa State 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Michigan vs Akron
Michigan 1
Virginia vs Iowa State
Iowa State 2
Game
Pick
Seed
Michigan vs Iowa State
Iowa State 2
FINAL FOUR (Indianapolis, April 4)
Semifinal
Matchup
Pick
East vs South
(1) Duke vs (2) Houston Houston
West vs Midwest
(1) Arizona vs (2) Iowa State Arizona
CHAMPIONSHIP (Indianapolis, April 6)
Game
Pick
Houston vs Arizona Houston
Why Houston wins it all:
KenPom #5 overall (14th offense, 5th defense) — meets every historical champion criterion
Hall of Fame coach Kelvin Sampson; returned most of last year's championship game runner-up roster
Home-court advantage through E8 (South Region S16/E8 in Houston)
Multiple projected first-round NBA picks (Flemings, Cenac)
4 experts pick Houston as champion (Parrish, Norlander, Paruk, Reger)
~7% public ownership = massive pool differentiation vs Duke (~22%) and Arizona (~21%)
Sweet 16 Seed Distribution (16 teams)
Seed
Count
Historical Avg
1
4
3.4
2
4
2.6
3
4
2.1
4
1
1.9
5
2
1.4
11
1
0.7
12
1
0.6
Sum 51 ~51
Elite 8 Seed Distribution (8 teams)
Seed
Count
Historical Avg
1
3 (Duke, Arizona, Michigan)
2.7
2
3 (Purdue, Houston, Iowa State)
1.8
3
1 (Michigan State)
1.0
5
1 (Vanderbilt)
0.3
Sum 17 ~17
Final Four Seed Distribution (4 teams)
Seed
Count
Historical Avg
1
2 (Duke, Arizona)
1.7
2
2 (Houston, Iowa State)
0.9
Sum 6 ~6.4
Historical average: ~8.9/year (since 2015)
Breakdown: 3× 9-over-8, 2× 10-over-7, 3× 11-over-6, 2× 12-over-5
Howard, Texas, Lehigh, SMU
Round 1 Winners (by region) East: Duke, Ohio State, St. John's, Kansas, South Florida, Michigan State, UCLA, UConn
West: Arizona, Utah State, High Point, Arkansas, Texas, Gonzaga, Missouri, Purdue
South: Florida, Iowa, Vanderbilt, Nebraska, VCU, Illinois, Saint Mary's, Houston
Midwest: Michigan, Saint Louis, Akron, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia, Santa Clara, Iowa State
East: Duke, St. John's, Michigan State, UConn
West: Arizona, Arkansas, Texas, Purdue
South: Florida, Vanderbilt, Illinois, Houston
Midwest: Michigan, Akron, Virginia, Iowa State
East: Duke, Michigan State
West: Arizona, Purdue
South: Vanderbilt, Houston
Midwest: Michigan, Iowa State
East: Duke | West: Arizona | South: Houston | Midwest: Iowa State
Houston over Duke | Arizona over Iowa State
Houston over Arizona
ESPN Tournament Challenge Quick-Entry Guide When clicking through ESPN's bracket interface, go region by region. Each region is presented as a standard bracket tree. Click the team names below in order:
EAST (click these winners left to right, round by round) R1: Duke | Ohio St | St. John's | Kansas | S. Florida | Mich St | UCLA | UConn
R2: Duke | St. John's | Mich St | UConn
S16: Duke | Mich St
E8: Duke ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────→ FINAL FOUR
WEST (click these winners) R1: Arizona | Utah St | High Point | Arkansas | Texas | Gonzaga | Missouri | Purdue
R2: Arizona | Arkansas | Texas | Purdue
S16: Arizona | Purdue
E8: Arizona ─────────────────────────────────────────────────→ FINAL FOUR
SOUTH (click these winners) R1: Florida | Iowa | Vanderbilt | Nebraska | VCU | Illinois | St. Mary's | Houston
R2: Florida | Vanderbilt | Illinois | Houston
S16: Vanderbilt | Houston
E8: Houston ──────────────────────────────────────────────────→ FINAL FOUR
MIDWEST (click these winners) R1: Michigan | St. Louis | Akron | Alabama | Tennessee | Virginia | Santa Clara | Iowa St
R2: Michigan | Akron | Virginia | Iowa St
S16: Michigan | Iowa St
E8: Iowa State ──────────────────────────────────────────────→ FINAL FOUR
Duke vs Houston → Houston
Arizona vs Iowa State → Arizona
Championship: Houston vs Arizona → HOUSTON
Built from 34+ expert brackets, KenPom/Torvik/Halametrics analytics, ESPN BPI/betting odds, Nate Silver COOPER model, CBS SportsLine simulations, historical seed distribution data (1985-2025), and injury reports. See research files in this directory for full sourcing.
