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cavedave/simon_wager

Last active March 16, 2026 18:48
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simon_wager
"start_year","end_year","start_value","end_value","change_value","pct_change","winner","winner_label","period","is_original_window"
1900,1910,1000,1057.58394685222,57.5839468522165,5.75839468522165,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1900->1910",FALSE
1901,1911,1000,1386.4192309077,386.4192309077,38.64192309077,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1901->1911",FALSE
1902,1912,1000,1341.73020560188,341.730205601884,34.1730205601884,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1902->1912",FALSE
1903,1913,1000,1487.37147860107,487.371478601067,48.7371478601067,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1903->1913",FALSE
1904,1914,1000,1135.6068795084,135.606879508398,13.5606879508398,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1904->1914",FALSE
1905,1915,1000,1881.17122655875,881.171226558753,88.1171226558753,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1905->1915",FALSE
1906,1916,1000,2024.47833008782,1024.47833008782,102.447833008782,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1906->1916",FALSE
1907,1917,1000,1527.06554576622,527.06554576622,52.706554576622,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1907->1917",FALSE
1908,1918,1000,2562.82016421843,1562.82016421843,156.282016421843,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1908->1918",FALSE
1909,1919,1000,1855.04046170554,855.040461705544,85.5040461705544,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1909->1919",FALSE
1910,1920,1000,1204.40681030636,204.406810306361,20.4406810306361,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1910->1920",FALSE
1911,1921,1000,984.699874353722,-15.3001256462783,-1.53001256462783,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1911->1921",FALSE
1912,1922,1000,967.239830852856,-32.7601691471441,-3.27601691471441,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1912->1922",FALSE
1913,1923,1000,1016.09345326416,16.0934532641556,1.60934532641556,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1913->1923",FALSE
1914,1924,1000,1078.40513786636,78.405137866356,7.8405137866356,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1914->1924",FALSE
1915,1925,1000,855.155453336315,-144.844546663685,-14.4844546663685,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1915->1925",FALSE
1916,1926,1000,749.439321911723,-250.560678088277,-25.0560678088277,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1916->1926",FALSE
1917,1927,1000,662.248946819576,-337.751053180424,-33.7751053180424,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1917->1927",FALSE
1918,1928,1000,546.173030898749,-453.826969101251,-45.3826969101251,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1918->1928",FALSE
1919,1929,1000,740.154149164675,-259.845850835325,-25.9845850835325,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1919->1929",FALSE
1920,1930,1000,922.798742572699,-77.2012574273009,-7.72012574273009,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1920->1930",FALSE
1921,1931,1000,1086.23982211043,86.2398221104277,8.62398221104277,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1921->1931",FALSE
1922,1932,1000,1009.39192039827,9.39192039827151,0.939192039827151,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1922->1932",FALSE
1923,1933,1000,953.210520691252,-46.7894793087482,-4.67894793087482,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1923->1933",FALSE
1924,1934,1000,1184.2014242306,184.201424230597,18.4201424230597,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1924->1934",FALSE
1925,1935,1000,1109.184927176,109.184927175999,10.9184927175999,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1925->1935",FALSE
1926,1936,1000,1101.72208861532,101.72208861532,10.172208861532,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1926->1936",FALSE
1927,1937,1000,1294.26408450704,294.264084507042,29.4264084507042,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1927->1937",FALSE
1928,1938,1000,1171.35226638515,171.352266385149,17.1352266385149,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1928->1938",FALSE
1929,1939,1000,1108.67986822823,108.679868228226,10.8679868228226,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1929->1939",FALSE
1930,1940,1000,1277.43342913037,277.433429130368,27.7433429130368,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1930->1940",FALSE
1931,1941,1000,1516.8170728273,516.817072827303,51.6817072827303,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1931->1941",FALSE
1932,1942,1000,1805.69004588732,805.690045887325,80.5690045887325,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1932->1942",FALSE
1933,1943,1000,1630.52586282948,630.525862829477,63.0525862829477,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1933->1943",FALSE
1934,1944,1000,1339.30080135073,339.300801350731,33.9300801350731,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1934->1944",FALSE
1935,1945,1000,1317.60552777004,317.605527770042,31.7605527770042,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1935->1945",FALSE
1936,1946,1000,1228.94038890698,228.940388906977,22.8940388906977,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1936->1946",FALSE
1937,1947,1000,1342.89759287029,342.897592870292,34.2897592870292,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1937->1947",FALSE
1938,1948,1000,1768.87912781278,768.879127812782,76.8879127812782,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1938->1948",FALSE
1939,1949,1000,1650.40521023445,650.405210234452,65.0405210234452,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1939->1949",FALSE
1940,1950,1000,1641.68288009528,641.68288009528,64.168288009528,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1940->1950",FALSE
1941,1951,1000,2113.89664513541,1113.89664513541,111.389664513541,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1941->1951",FALSE
1942,1952,1000,2089.88412386752,1089.88412386752,108.988412386752,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1942->1952",FALSE
1943,1953,1000,2060.89928257255,1060.89928257255,106.089928257255,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1943->1953",FALSE
1944,1954,1000,2011.25342163466,1011.25342163466,101.125342163466,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1944->1954",FALSE
1945,1955,1000,2181.06825981401,1181.06825981401,118.106825981401,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1945->1955",FALSE
1946,1956,1000,2283.40351530114,1283.40351530114,128.340351530114,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1946->1956",FALSE
1947,1957,1000,1513.41645499061,513.416454990606,51.3416454990606,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1947->1957",FALSE
1948,1958,1000,1266.5679969718,266.567996971796,26.6567996971796,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1948->1958",FALSE
1949,1959,1000,1403.88985165254,403.889851652541,40.3889851652541,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1949->1959",FALSE
1950,1960,1000,1231.23329160657,231.233291606568,23.1233291606568,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1950->1960",FALSE
1951,1961,1000,960.019130541891,-39.9808694581092,-3.99808694581092,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1951->1961",FALSE
1952,1962,1000,1061.07341132297,61.0734113229714,6.10734113229714,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1952->1962",FALSE
1953,1963,1000,999.478981465322,-0.521018534677864,-0.0521018534677864,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1953->1963",FALSE
1954,1964,1000,1174.91070245675,174.910702456752,17.4910702456752,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1954->1964",FALSE
1955,1965,1000,1193.86688717686,193.866887176855,19.3866887176855,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1955->1965",FALSE
1956,1966,1000,1105.17559908242,105.175599082422,10.5175599082422,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1956->1966",FALSE
1957,1967,1000,1283.62269202916,283.622692029163,28.3622692029163,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1957->1967",FALSE
1958,1968,1000,1533.14001384245,533.140013842449,53.3140013842449,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1958->1968",FALSE
1959,1969,1000,1484.78542244393,484.78542244393,48.478542244393,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1959->1969",FALSE
1960,1970,1000,1710.74506707069,710.745067070688,71.0745067070688,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1960->1970",FALSE
1961,1971,1000,1956.40914786421,956.40914786421,95.640914786421,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1961->1971",FALSE
1962,1972,1000,1660.69539132171,660.695391321709,66.0695391321709,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1962->1972",FALSE
1963,1973,1000,1931.51435575644,931.514355756445,93.1514355756444,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1963->1973",FALSE
1964,1974,1000,2682.95929248828,1682.95929248828,168.295929248828,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1964->1974",FALSE
1965,1975,1000,2785.71327279464,1785.71327279464,178.571327279464,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1965->1975",FALSE
1966,1976,1000,2854.09288851494,1854.09288851494,185.409288851494,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1966->1976",FALSE
1967,1977,1000,3303.60007780077,2303.60007780077,230.360007780077,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1967->1977",FALSE
1968,1978,1000,2998.13797265985,1998.13797265985,199.813797265985,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1968->1978",FALSE
1969,1979,1000,3342.24893731701,2342.24893731701,234.224893731701,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1969->1979",FALSE
1970,1980,1000,3414.03159649386,2414.03159649386,241.403159649386,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1970->1980",FALSE
1971,1981,1000,2902.10436375578,1902.10436375578,190.210436375578,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1971->1981",FALSE
1972,1982,1000,2515.00753666966,1515.00753666966,151.500753666966,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1972->1982",FALSE
1973,1983,1000,2071.28306756229,1071.28306756229,107.128306756229,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1973->1983",FALSE
1974,1984,1000,1405.40134997678,405.401349976784,40.5401349976784,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1974->1984",FALSE
1975,1985,1000,1197.26109121811,197.26109121811,19.726109121811,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1975->1985",FALSE
1976,1986,1000,920.590608712613,-79.409391287387,-7.9409391287387,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1976->1986",FALSE
1977,1987,1000,924.788040826312,-75.211959173688,-7.5211959173688,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1977->1987",FALSE
1978,1988,1000,1659.6245523647,659.624552364702,65.9624552364702,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1978->1988",FALSE
1979,1989,1000,1418.43207307803,418.432073078027,41.8432073078027,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1979->1989",FALSE
1980,1990,1000,989.901998698761,-10.098001301239,-1.0098001301239,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1980->1990",TRUE
1981,1991,1000,997.66843026054,-2.33156973945961,-0.233156973945961,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1981->1991",FALSE
1982,1992,1000,1100.80458068328,100.804580683284,10.0804580683284,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1982->1992",FALSE
1983,1993,1000,916.169552846269,-83.830447153731,-8.3830447153731,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1983->1993",FALSE
1984,1994,1000,1074.8100595323,74.8100595322958,7.48100595322958,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1984->1994",FALSE
1985,1995,1000,1466.08088452755,466.080884527546,46.6080884527547,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1985->1995",FALSE
1986,1996,1000,1499.41972143532,499.419721435319,49.9419721435319,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1986->1996",FALSE
1987,1997,1000,1342.2185119994,342.218511999399,34.2218511999398,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1987->1997",FALSE
1988,1998,1000,760.820350845835,-239.179649154165,-23.9179649154165,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1988->1998",FALSE
1989,1999,1000,594.045765317408,-405.954234682592,-40.5954234682592,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1989->1999",FALSE
1990,2000,1000,895.903258169223,-104.096741830777,-10.4096741830777,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1990->2000",FALSE
1991,2001,1000,902.652880251009,-97.3471197489914,-9.73471197489914,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1991->2001",FALSE
1992,2002,1000,855.736379596182,-144.263620403818,-14.4263620403818,"Simon","Simon (prices fell)","1992->2002",FALSE
1993,2003,1000,1258.86611509747,258.86611509747,25.886611509747,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1993->2003",FALSE
1994,2004,1000,1616.38250757156,616.382507571558,61.6382507571558,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1994->2004",FALSE
1995,2005,1000,1571.66307802479,571.663078024794,57.1663078024794,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1995->2005",FALSE
1996,2006,1000,2512.15982581622,1512.15982581622,151.215982581622,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1996->2006",FALSE
1997,2007,1000,3294.5618208595,2294.5618208595,229.45618208595,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1997->2007",FALSE
1998,2008,1000,3944.08311749253,2944.08311749253,294.408311749253,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1998->2008",FALSE
1999,2009,1000,2881.12395799521,1881.12395799521,188.112395799521,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","1999->2009",FALSE
2000,2010,1000,3313.28869194085,2313.28869194085,231.328869194085,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","2000->2010",FALSE
2001,2011,1000,4213.12183871317,3213.12183871317,321.312183871318,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","2001->2011",FALSE
2002,2012,1000,4253.01820706126,3253.01820706126,325.301820706126,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","2002->2012",FALSE
2003,2013,1000,3316.75723912222,2316.75723912222,231.675723912222,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","2003->2013",FALSE
2004,2014,1000,2225.21975039935,1225.21975039935,122.521975039935,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","2004->2014",FALSE
2005,2015,1000,1321.53377619824,321.533776198239,32.1533776198239,"Ehrlich","Ehrlich (prices rose)","2005->2015",FALSE
Raw
wager.r
#!/usr/bin/env Rscript
suppressPackageStartupMessages({
library(readxl)
library(dplyr)
library(tidyr)
library(ggplot2)
})
dir.create("output", showWarnings = FALSE, recursive = TRUE)
metal_sources <- list(
chromium = c(
"https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/chromium-historical-statistics-data-series-140",
"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/historical-statistics/ds140-chrom.xlsx"
),
copper = c(
"https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/copper-historical-statistics-data-series-140",
"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/historical-statistics/ds140-coppe.xlsx"
),
nickel = c(
"https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/nickel-historical-statistics-data-series-140",
"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/historical-statistics/ds140-nicke.xlsx"
),
tin = c(
"https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/tin-historical-statistics-data-series-140",
"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/historical-statistics/ds140-tin.xlsx"
),
tungsten = c(
"https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/tungsten-historical-statistics-data-series-140",
"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/historical-statistics/ds140-tungs.xlsx"
)
)
download_first_available <- function(urls, target_file) {
for (u in urls) {
ok <- tryCatch({
utils::download.file(u, target_file, mode = "wb", quiet = TRUE)
if (!isTRUE(file.info(target_file)$size > 0)) {
return(FALSE)
}
# Ensure we actually downloaded an Excel workbook, not an HTML page.
invisible(readxl::excel_sheets(target_file))
TRUE
}, error = function(e) {
FALSE
})
if (isTRUE(ok)) {
return(u)
}
}
stop("Failed to download any URL in source list.")
}
standardize_commodity <- function(metal_name, urls) {
tmp_xlsx <- tempfile(fileext = ".xlsx")
used_url <- download_first_available(urls, tmp_xlsx)
raw <- readxl::read_excel(tmp_xlsx, skip = 4, .name_repair = "minimal")
names_clean <- trimws(names(raw))
names(raw) <- names_clean
year_col <- which(tolower(names_clean) == "year")[1]
value_col <- which(grepl("^Unit value \\(\\$/t\\)$", names_clean, ignore.case = TRUE))[1]
if (is.na(value_col)) {
value_col <- which(grepl("^Unit value", names_clean, ignore.case = TRUE))[1]
}
if (is.na(year_col) || is.na(value_col)) {
stop(paste("Could not detect Year and Unit value columns for", metal_name))
}
year_name <- names_clean[year_col]
value_name <- names_clean[value_col]
out <- raw %>%
transmute(
Year = suppressWarnings(as.integer(.data[[year_name]])),
value = suppressWarnings(as.numeric(gsub(",", "", as.character(.data[[value_name]]))))
) %>%
filter(!is.na(Year), !is.na(value), Year >= 1900) %>%
distinct(Year, .keep_all = TRUE) %>%
rename(!!metal_name := value) %>%
arrange(Year)
attr(out, "source_url") <- used_url
out
}
message("Loading and standardizing USGS series...")
metal_data <- lapply(names(metal_sources), function(m) standardize_commodity(m, metal_sources[[m]]))
names(metal_data) <- names(metal_sources)
prices_wide <- Reduce(function(x, y) full_join(x, y, by = "Year"), metal_data) %>%
arrange(Year)
required_metals <- names(metal_sources)
prices_complete <- prices_wide %>%
filter(if_all(all_of(required_metals), ~ !is.na(.x)))
if (nrow(prices_complete) == 0) {
stop("No complete years found across all five metal series.")
}
compute_rolling_basket <- function(prices_tbl, metals, horizon = 10, total_budget = 1000) {
years <- sort(unique(prices_tbl$Year))
start_years <- years[(years + horizon) %in% years]
if (length(start_years) == 0) {
return(tibble())
}
rows <- vector("list", length(start_years))
for (i in seq_along(start_years)) {
sy <- start_years[i]
ey <- sy + horizon
start_row <- prices_tbl[prices_tbl$Year == sy, metals, drop = FALSE]
end_row <- prices_tbl[prices_tbl$Year == ey, metals, drop = FALSE]
if (nrow(start_row) != 1 || nrow(end_row) != 1 || any(is.na(start_row)) || any(is.na(end_row))) {
next
}
per_metal_budget <- total_budget / length(metals)
start_prices <- as.numeric(start_row[1, ])
end_prices <- as.numeric(end_row[1, ])
qty <- per_metal_budget / start_prices
end_value <- sum(qty * end_prices)
rows[[i]] <- tibble(
start_year = sy,
end_year = ey,
start_value = total_budget,
end_value = end_value,
change_value = end_value - total_budget,
pct_change = (end_value - total_budget) / total_budget * 100,
winner = ifelse(end_value < total_budget, "Simon", "Ehrlich")
)
}
bind_rows(rows) %>% arrange(start_year)
}
message("Computing fixed-basket rolling outcomes...")
results <- compute_rolling_basket(prices_complete, required_metals, horizon = 10, total_budget = 1000)
if (nrow(results) == 0) {
stop("No rolling results generated; check year overlap and missing values.")
}
results <- results %>%
mutate(
winner_label = ifelse(winner == "Simon", "Simon (prices fell)", "Ehrlich (prices rose)"),
period = paste0(start_year, "->", end_year),
is_original_window = start_year == 1980 & end_year == 1990
)
if (!any(results$is_original_window)) {
warning("1980->1990 window not found in complete data after cleaning.")
}
write.csv(results, "output/simon_wager_basket_results.csv", row.names = FALSE)
palette <- c(
"Simon (prices fell)" = "#009E73",
"Ehrlich (prices rose)" = "#D55E00"
)
start_break <- floor(min(results$start_year) / 25) * 25
end_break <- ceiling(max(results$start_year) / 25) * 25
x_breaks <- sort(unique(c(seq(start_break, end_break, by = 25), 1980, 1990)))
y_max <- max(results$pct_change, na.rm = TRUE)
p <- ggplot(results, aes(x = start_year, y = pct_change, color = winner_label)) +
annotate(
"rect",
xmin = 1980,
xmax = 1990,
ymin = -Inf,
ymax = Inf,
fill = "#B3CDE3",
alpha = 0.22
) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linewidth = 0.6, linetype = "dashed", color = "#666666") +
geom_vline(xintercept = 1968, linewidth = 0.5, linetype = "dotted", color = "#666666") +
geom_line(color = "#4C78A8", linewidth = 0.5, alpha = 0.7) +
geom_point(size = 2, alpha = 0.95) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = x_breaks) +
scale_color_manual(values = palette, name = "10-year winner") +
labs(
title = "Simon-Ehrlich style wager, rolling 10-year starts",
subtitle = "Fixed-quantity basket of chromium, copper, nickel, tin, tungsten (equal-dollar allocation at each start year)",
x = "Start year",
y = "Basket change after 10 years (%)",
caption = "Sources: USGS Data Series 140 commodity unit values"
) +
theme_minimal(base_size = 11) +
theme(
legend.position = "top",
plot.title = element_text(face = "bold")
) +
annotate(
"label",
x = 1985,
y = y_max,
label = "Actual Wager\n(1980-1990)",
size = 3.1,
fill = "white",
vjust = 1.2
) +
annotate(
"label",
x = 1968,
y = y_max,
label = "The Population Bomb (1968)",
size = 2.8,
fill = "white",
vjust = -0.2,
hjust = 0
)
ggsave(
filename = "output/simon_wager_rolling_10y.png",
plot = p,
width = 11,
height = 6.5,
dpi = 180
)
summary_line <- results %>%
summarise(
n_windows = n(),
simon_win_rate = mean(winner == "Simon") * 100
)
message(sprintf("Saved output/simon_wager_basket_results.csv with %d windows.", summary_line$n_windows))
message(sprintf("Simon wins %.1f%% of rolling windows.", summary_line$simon_win_rate))
message("Saved output/simon_wager_rolling_10y.png.")
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cavedave commented Mar 16, 2026

simon_wager_rolling_10y

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