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Historical PolicyEngine US CTC reform reproduction for Nov 1 2025 package + HF snapshot
Raw
README.md

Historical PolicyEngine US CTC Reform Reproduction

This directory contains an executed notebook reproducing the reform run against the historical PolicyEngine US stack current by the end of November 1, 2025 in America/New_York.

It includes both the main credit aggregates and the federal/state/payroll tax decomposition behind the household_net_income change.

Re-execution

Run the notebook from a clean environment with:

uv run \
  --with 'policyengine-us==1.428.0' \
  --with 'policyengine-core==3.20.1' \
  --with 'huggingface_hub' \
  --with 'nbformat' \
  python /Users/maxghenis/tmp/ctc_historical_repro/execute_notebook.py

This rewrites the notebook in place with executed outputs. You can also open the notebook in Jupyter or VS Code after installing the same pinned packages and rerun the cells manually.

To reproduce the aggregates directly without touching the notebook:

uv run \
  --with 'policyengine-us==1.428.0' \
  --with 'policyengine-core==3.20.1' \
  --with 'huggingface_hub' \
  python /Users/maxghenis/tmp/ctc_historical_repro/run_historical_reform.py

The notebook itself asserts the package versions and downloads the exact Hugging Face revision:

  • policyengine-us==1.428.0
  • policyengine-core==3.20.1
  • HF commit 8283acff6cb61f752970c47f66e7e28db762454f
  • dataset enhanced_cps_2024.h5
Raw
execute_notebook.py
import ast
import io
import warnings
from contextlib import redirect_stderr, redirect_stdout
from pathlib import Path
from pprint import pformat
import nbformat
NOTEBOOK_PATH = Path(
"/Users/maxghenis/tmp/ctc_historical_repro/policyengine_historical_ctc_reform_2025_11_01.ipynb"
)
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=SyntaxWarning)
def _execute_code(source: str, namespace: dict):
tree = ast.parse(source)
body = tree.body
last_value = None
stdout_buffer = io.StringIO()
stderr_buffer = io.StringIO()
with redirect_stdout(stdout_buffer), redirect_stderr(stderr_buffer):
if body and isinstance(body[-1], ast.Expr):
prefix = ast.Module(body=body[:-1], type_ignores=[])
if body[:-1]:
exec(compile(prefix, "<notebook-cell>", "exec"), namespace)
expr = ast.Expression(body[-1].value)
last_value = eval(compile(expr, "<notebook-cell>", "eval"), namespace)
else:
exec(compile(tree, "<notebook-cell>", "exec"), namespace)
return stdout_buffer.getvalue(), stderr_buffer.getvalue(), last_value
def main() -> None:
notebook = nbformat.read(NOTEBOOK_PATH.open(encoding="utf-8"), as_version=4)
namespace: dict = {}
execution_count = 1
for cell in notebook.cells:
if cell.cell_type != "code":
continue
stdout_text, stderr_text, result = _execute_code(cell.source, namespace)
outputs = []
if stdout_text:
outputs.append(
nbformat.v4.new_output(
output_type="stream",
name="stdout",
text=stdout_text,
)
)
if stderr_text:
outputs.append(
nbformat.v4.new_output(
output_type="stream",
name="stderr",
text=stderr_text,
)
)
if result is not None:
outputs.append(
nbformat.v4.new_output(
output_type="execute_result",
execution_count=execution_count,
data={"text/plain": pformat(result, width=100)},
metadata={},
)
)
cell["execution_count"] = execution_count
cell["outputs"] = outputs
execution_count += 1
nbformat.write(notebook, NOTEBOOK_PATH.open("w", encoding="utf-8"))
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Display the source blob
Display the rendered blob
Raw
policyengine_historical_ctc_reform_2025_11_01.ipynb
{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "8674140f",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Historical PolicyEngine US CTC Reform Reproduction\n",
"\n",
"This notebook reproduces the reform run against the historical PolicyEngine stack that was current by the end of **November 1, 2025** in the `America/New_York` timezone.\n",
"\n",
"Pinned components:\n",
"\n",
"- `policyengine-us==1.428.0`\n",
"- `policyengine-core==3.20.1`\n",
"- Hugging Face repo `policyengine/policyengine-us-data`\n",
"- HF revision `8283acff6cb61f752970c47f66e7e28db762454f`\n",
"- dataset file `enhanced_cps_2024.h5`\n",
"\n",
"The notebook downloads the historical ECPS snapshot directly from Hugging Face, applies the reform exactly as provided, and computes baseline/reformed aggregates for `household_net_income`, `ctc`, `refundable_ctc`, `non_refundable_ctc`, and `eitc`.\n",
"\n",
"It also decomposes the tax side into federal income tax, state income tax, payroll tax, and refundable credits so the `household_net_income` change can be reconciled directly.\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"id": "ec8d538f",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"{'dataset_path': '/tmp/peus-historical-0fYXlB/enhanced_cps_2024.h5',\n",
" 'hf_commit': '8283acff6cb61f752970c47f66e7e28db762454f',\n",
" 'policyengine_core': '3.20.1',\n",
" 'policyengine_us': '1.428.0'}"
]
},
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from importlib.metadata import version\n",
"from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download\n",
"from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n",
"\n",
"EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_US = \"1.428.0\"\n",
"EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_CORE = \"3.20.1\"\n",
"HF_COMMIT = \"8283acff6cb61f752970c47f66e7e28db762454f\"\n",
"FILENAME = \"enhanced_cps_2024.h5\"\n",
"LOCAL_DIR = \"/tmp/peus-historical-0fYXlB\"\n",
"\n",
"assert version(\"policyengine-us\") == EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_US\n",
"assert version(\"policyengine-core\") == EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_CORE\n",
"\n",
"dataset_path = hf_hub_download(\n",
" repo_id=\"policyengine/policyengine-us-data\",\n",
" repo_type=\"model\",\n",
" filename=FILENAME,\n",
" revision=HF_COMMIT,\n",
" local_dir=LOCAL_DIR,\n",
")\n",
"\n",
"{\n",
" \"policyengine_us\": version(\"policyengine-us\"),\n",
" \"policyengine_core\": version(\"policyengine-core\"),\n",
" \"hf_commit\": HF_COMMIT,\n",
" \"dataset_path\": dataset_path,\n",
"}\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 2,
"id": "84c440d8",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
"\n",
"reform = Reform.from_dict(\n",
" {\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[0].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 2000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[1].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 2000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[2].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 2000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[3].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 2000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 25},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.arpa[0].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 4800},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.arpa[1].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 4800},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 25},\n",
" \"gov.contrib.ctc.minimum_refundable.in_effect\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": True},\n",
" \"gov.contrib.ctc.per_child_phase_in.in_effect\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": True},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.in_effect\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": True},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.rate\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.2},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[0].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.2},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[1].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.2},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[2].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.2},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[3].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.2},\n",
" \"gov.contrib.ctc.per_child_phase_out.in_effect\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": True},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 200000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 4800},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[0].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.1},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[1].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.1},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[2].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.1},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[3].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.1},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 100000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[0].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 20000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[1].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 20000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[2].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 20000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[3].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 20000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 100000},\n",
" \"gov.contrib.ctc.per_child_phase_out.avoid_overlap\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": True},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.JOINT\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 35000},\n",
" \"gov.contrib.ctc.minimum_refundable.amount[0].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 2400},\n",
" \"gov.contrib.ctc.minimum_refundable.amount[1].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 2400},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.SINGLE\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 25000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.joint_bonus[0].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 7000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.joint_bonus[1].amount\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 7000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.SEPARATE\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 25000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 100000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 100000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 25000},\n",
" \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 25000},\n",
" },\n",
" country_id=\"us\",\n",
")\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
"id": "06f0dd06",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset_path)\n",
"reformed = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset_path, reform=reform)\n",
"\n",
"period = 2025\n",
"\n",
"def total(simulation, variable):\n",
" return float(simulation.calculate(variable, period=period).sum())\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 4,
"id": "66792d98",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"{'ctc_baseline': 139965595576.34567,\n",
" 'ctc_delta': 78044805654.72021,\n",
" 'ctc_reformed': 218010401231.0659,\n",
" 'eitc_baseline': 50040058621.51654,\n",
" 'eitc_delta': -17360618287.15742,\n",
" 'eitc_reformed': 32679440334.35912,\n",
" 'household_net_income_baseline': 15724592881791.1,\n",
" 'household_net_income_delta': 68774996409.08398,\n",
" 'household_net_income_reformed': 15793367878200.184,\n",
" 'non_refundable_ctc_baseline': 108450715052.51631,\n",
" 'non_refundable_ctc_delta': -108450715052.51631,\n",
" 'non_refundable_ctc_reformed': 0.0,\n",
" 'refundable_ctc_baseline': 31514880539.553005,\n",
" 'refundable_ctc_delta': 164806859857.15298,\n",
" 'refundable_ctc_reformed': 196321740396.706}"
]
},
"execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"results = {\n",
" \"household_net_income_baseline\": total(baseline, \"household_net_income\"),\n",
" \"household_net_income_reformed\": total(reformed, \"household_net_income\"),\n",
"}\n",
"results[\"household_net_income_delta\"] = (\n",
" results[\"household_net_income_reformed\"] - results[\"household_net_income_baseline\"]\n",
")\n",
"\n",
"for variable in [\"ctc\", \"refundable_ctc\", \"non_refundable_ctc\", \"eitc\"]:\n",
" baseline_total = total(baseline, variable)\n",
" reformed_total = total(reformed, variable)\n",
" results[f\"{variable}_baseline\"] = baseline_total\n",
" results[f\"{variable}_reformed\"] = reformed_total\n",
" results[f\"{variable}_delta\"] = reformed_total - baseline_total\n",
"\n",
"results\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "00be03cc",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Tax decomposition\n",
"\n",
"`household_net_income` includes more than federal income tax. In this historical stack it is:\n",
"\n",
"`household_market_income + household_benefits + household_refundable_tax_credits - household_tax_before_refundable_credits`\n",
"\n",
"and `household_tax_before_refundable_credits` includes:\n",
"\n",
"- payroll taxes\n",
"- federal income tax before refundable credits\n",
"- state taxes before refundable credits\n",
"- any flat-tax components\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"id": "dcbb8bdf",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"{'employee_payroll_tax_baseline': 691022875476.8224,\n",
" 'employee_payroll_tax_delta': 0.0,\n",
" 'employee_payroll_tax_reformed': 691022875476.8224,\n",
" 'household_refundable_tax_credits_baseline': 104686261203.22008,\n",
" 'household_refundable_tax_credits_delta': 147570703598.24713,\n",
" 'household_refundable_tax_credits_reformed': 252256964801.46722,\n",
" 'household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': 504516639117.1709,\n",
" 'household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': -167428116.66784668,\n",
" 'household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': 504349211000.50305,\n",
" 'household_tax_baseline': 3284939000364.406,\n",
" 'household_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': 3389625261876.2153,\n",
" 'household_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': 78795699750.05078,\n",
" 'household_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': 3468420961626.266,\n",
" 'household_tax_delta': -68775003976.24512,\n",
" 'household_tax_reformed': 3216163996388.1606,\n",
" 'income_tax_baseline': 2047085595309.3816,\n",
" 'income_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': 2128640534611.4636,\n",
" 'income_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': 78963128202.84204,\n",
" 'income_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': 2207603662814.3057,\n",
" 'income_tax_delta': -68483113064.68164,\n",
" 'income_tax_reformed': 1978602482244.7,\n",
" 'self_employment_tax_baseline': 65445214799.34959,\n",
" 'self_employment_tax_delta': 0.0,\n",
" 'self_employment_tax_reformed': 65445214799.34959,\n",
" 'state_income_tax_baseline': 481385316552.1843,\n",
" 'state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': 504516639062.80927,\n",
" 'state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': -167428151.36254883,\n",
" 'state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': 504349210911.4467,\n",
" 'state_income_tax_delta': -291890188.11120605,\n",
" 'state_income_tax_reformed': 481093426364.0731}"
]
},
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"tax_results = {}\n",
"\n",
"for variable in [\n",
" \"income_tax_before_refundable_credits\",\n",
" \"income_tax\",\n",
" \"household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits\",\n",
" \"state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits\",\n",
" \"state_income_tax\",\n",
" \"household_tax_before_refundable_credits\",\n",
" \"household_tax\",\n",
" \"employee_payroll_tax\",\n",
" \"self_employment_tax\",\n",
" \"household_refundable_tax_credits\",\n",
"]:\n",
" baseline_total = total(baseline, variable)\n",
" reformed_total = total(reformed, variable)\n",
" tax_results[f\"{variable}_baseline\"] = baseline_total\n",
" tax_results[f\"{variable}_reformed\"] = reformed_total\n",
" tax_results[f\"{variable}_delta\"] = reformed_total - baseline_total\n",
"\n",
"tax_results\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
"id": "5192b688",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"{'ctc_baseline': '139.966B',\n",
" 'ctc_delta': '78.045B',\n",
" 'ctc_reformed': '218.010B',\n",
" 'eitc_baseline': '50.040B',\n",
" 'eitc_delta': '-17.361B',\n",
" 'eitc_reformed': '32.679B',\n",
" 'household_net_income_baseline': '15,724.593B',\n",
" 'household_net_income_delta': '68.775B',\n",
" 'household_net_income_reformed': '15,793.368B',\n",
" 'non_refundable_ctc_baseline': '108.451B',\n",
" 'non_refundable_ctc_delta': '-108.451B',\n",
" 'non_refundable_ctc_reformed': '0.000B',\n",
" 'refundable_ctc_baseline': '31.515B',\n",
" 'refundable_ctc_delta': '164.807B',\n",
" 'refundable_ctc_reformed': '196.322B'}"
]
},
"execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"def format_billions(amount):\n",
" return f\"{amount / 1e9:,.3f}B\"\n",
"\n",
"summary = {\n",
" key: format_billions(value)\n",
" for key, value in results.items()\n",
" if key.endswith((\"baseline\", \"reformed\", \"delta\"))\n",
"}\n",
"summary\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"id": "9e24d913",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"{'employee_payroll_tax_baseline': '691.023B',\n",
" 'employee_payroll_tax_delta': '0.000B',\n",
" 'employee_payroll_tax_reformed': '691.023B',\n",
" 'household_refundable_tax_credits_baseline': '104.686B',\n",
" 'household_refundable_tax_credits_delta': '147.571B',\n",
" 'household_refundable_tax_credits_reformed': '252.257B',\n",
" 'household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': '504.517B',\n",
" 'household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': '-0.167B',\n",
" 'household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': '504.349B',\n",
" 'household_tax_baseline': '3,284.939B',\n",
" 'household_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': '3,389.625B',\n",
" 'household_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': '78.796B',\n",
" 'household_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': '3,468.421B',\n",
" 'household_tax_delta': '-68.775B',\n",
" 'household_tax_reformed': '3,216.164B',\n",
" 'income_tax_baseline': '2,047.086B',\n",
" 'income_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': '2,128.641B',\n",
" 'income_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': '78.963B',\n",
" 'income_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': '2,207.604B',\n",
" 'income_tax_delta': '-68.483B',\n",
" 'income_tax_reformed': '1,978.602B',\n",
" 'self_employment_tax_baseline': '65.445B',\n",
" 'self_employment_tax_delta': '0.000B',\n",
" 'self_employment_tax_reformed': '65.445B',\n",
" 'state_income_tax_baseline': '481.385B',\n",
" 'state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits_baseline': '504.517B',\n",
" 'state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits_delta': '-0.167B',\n",
" 'state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits_reformed': '504.349B',\n",
" 'state_income_tax_delta': '-0.292B',\n",
" 'state_income_tax_reformed': '481.093B'}"
]
},
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"tax_summary = {key: format_billions(value) for key, value in tax_results.items()}\n",
"tax_summary\n"
]
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 3",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "python",
"version": "3.12"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 5
}
Raw
run_historical_reform.py
from importlib.metadata import version
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform
from policyengine_us import Microsimulation
EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_US = "1.428.0"
EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_CORE = "3.20.1"
HF_COMMIT = "8283acff6cb61f752970c47f66e7e28db762454f"
FILENAME = "enhanced_cps_2024.h5"
LOCAL_DIR = "/tmp/peus-historical-0fYXlB"
assert version("policyengine-us") == EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_US
assert version("policyengine-core") == EXPECTED_POLICYENGINE_CORE
dataset_path = hf_hub_download(
repo_id="policyengine/policyengine-us-data",
repo_type="model",
filename=FILENAME,
revision=HF_COMMIT,
local_dir=LOCAL_DIR,
)
reform = Reform.from_dict(
{
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[0].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 2000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[1].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 2000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[2].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 2000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.max[3].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 2000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 25},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.arpa[0].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 4800},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.arpa[1].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 4800},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 25},
"gov.contrib.ctc.minimum_refundable.in_effect": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": True},
"gov.contrib.ctc.per_child_phase_in.in_effect": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": True},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.in_effect": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": True},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.rate": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.2},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[0].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.2},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[1].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.2},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[2].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.2},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_in_rate[3].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.2},
"gov.contrib.ctc.per_child_phase_out.in_effect": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": True},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 200000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 4800},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[0].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.1},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[1].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.1},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[2].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.1},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.rate[3].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.1},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 100000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[0].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 20000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[1].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 20000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[2].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 20000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.start[3].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 20000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 100000},
"gov.contrib.ctc.per_child_phase_out.avoid_overlap": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": True},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.JOINT": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 35000},
"gov.contrib.ctc.minimum_refundable.amount[0].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 2400},
"gov.contrib.ctc.minimum_refundable.amount[1].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 2400},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.SINGLE": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 25000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.joint_bonus[0].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 7000},
"gov.irs.credits.eitc.phase_out.joint_bonus[1].amount": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 7000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.SEPARATE": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 25000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 100000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 100000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 25000},
"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {"2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 25000},
},
country_id="us",
)
baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset_path)
reformed = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset_path, reform=reform)
def total(simulation, variable, period=2025):
return float(simulation.calculate(variable, period=period).sum())
results = {
"package_version": version("policyengine-us"),
"core_version": version("policyengine-core"),
"hf_commit": HF_COMMIT,
"dataset_path": dataset_path,
"household_net_income_baseline": total(baseline, "household_net_income"),
"household_net_income_reformed": total(reformed, "household_net_income"),
}
results["household_net_income_delta"] = (
results["household_net_income_reformed"] - results["household_net_income_baseline"]
)
for variable in ["ctc", "refundable_ctc", "non_refundable_ctc", "eitc"]:
baseline_total = total(baseline, variable)
reformed_total = total(reformed, variable)
results[f"{variable}_baseline"] = baseline_total
results[f"{variable}_reformed"] = reformed_total
results[f"{variable}_delta"] = reformed_total - baseline_total
for variable in [
"income_tax_before_refundable_credits",
"income_tax",
"household_state_tax_before_refundable_credits",
"state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits",
"state_income_tax",
"household_tax_before_refundable_credits",
"household_tax",
"employee_payroll_tax",
"self_employment_tax",
"household_refundable_tax_credits",
]:
baseline_total = total(baseline, variable)
reformed_total = total(reformed, variable)
results[f"{variable}_baseline"] = baseline_total
results[f"{variable}_reformed"] = reformed_total
results[f"{variable}_delta"] = reformed_total - baseline_total
for key, value in results.items():
print(f"{key}={value}")
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